By Saiwan Sirwan / Former Advisor to the Iraqi President.

Iraq and the Kurdistan Region are not exempt from the shifting dynamics of the Middle East. While the warning signs have been visible for some time, mechanisms for confrontation and coordination should have been established earlier. Now, however, the flames and threats from the Middle East have reached Iraq, especially in the wake of the Gaza war. This will undoubtedly have a direct influence on the Kurdistan Region.

The Iraqi Resistance Front, which includes Hashd al-Shaabi, has launched around 200 attacks on Israeli targets and coalition forces in the region over the past year. Israel’s direct objective has now shifted to delivering a decisive blow to the Islamic Republic of Iran. The stark reality is that the Iraqi federal government is unable to control its Shiite militias, which claim to follow the directives of Iran's Supreme Leader. Ironically, these militias essentially operate as extensions of the Iraqi government.

These days, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is holding elections to renew its legitimacy. However, for years, the Kurdistan Region has been divided into two political and geographical zones dominated by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Political divisions have led to the formation of two distinct regional axes. The KDP, due to its geographical position, is closer to Turkey, which has heightened the threat posed by the PKK and its allies in KDP-controlled areas. Moreover, the six-decade-long conflict between these two political parties has caused significant human suffering, contributed to widespread corruption, and created numerous challenges for the citizens of the Kurdistan Region.

Conversely, the PUK, which is aligned with Iran and the Hashd al-Shaabi forces, presented itself as part of the Resistance Front "Iraqi muqawama"  during the KRI’s election campaign. The PUK leader's approach, driven by militaristic rhetoric, threatens to turn parts of the Kurdistan Region into another "Jurf al-Sakhar" in the region.

In essence, the political landscape in the Kurdistan Region is fractured, with numerous parties and influential leaders competing in the elections. However, these factions are largely split between the Resistance Front (PUK-aligned) and the KDP Front. The most immediate consequence of this divide is that the Kurdistan Region, which has been established over the past three decades through global and historical shifts, risks being carved into two separate administrative zones. Tragically, people may end up voting for a future that could lead to the destruction of their homeland and the collapse of the Kurdistan Regional Government. Intellectuals from the Kurdish, Iraqi, and international communities, and Western alliances, should act swiftly to prevent these elections from taking place under such divisive conditions. It may be better to delay the elections altogether.