By Bahrooz Jaafar

NATO summit will be held in Vilnius on July 11-12, 2023. This is NATO's fourth summit since the outbreak of the war. Ukraine wants to join NATO. Vladimir Zilinsky received Turkey's friendly support during his July 7, 2023 visit. Sweden has also expected Turkey to lift its veto, and talks in Brussels on Turkey's demands have made good progress.

Will this summit be different, and will it take more essential steps in Western policies on the Ukraine war? 

According to the US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke with his American counterpart in a phone call on Sunday, days ahead of a NATO summit; both US President Joe Biden and Erdogan will meet at the summit.  

The summit will discuss three main issues: the defense of Ukraine and Sweden's membership in NATO, which are considered sensitive and crucial issues that NATO is expected to resolve. Also, the immigration problem has bothered Lithuania, Belarus, and other European countries. The Baltic countries of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, as well as Eastern Europe in general, were all formerly under the control of the former Soviet Union, some until recently under the wing of Russia, but are now all members of NATO. The summit venue is only 150 kilometers from the Russian border!

Then, between November 2022, when the summit was previously held in Madrid, and the day of the NATO summit in Vilnius, three significant events occurred:

First, the Western countries and their intelligence agencies have realized that Russia is not a country that can constantly produce the necessary weapons for war in terms of military and industrial capabilities. So specifically, six days before the summit, the Biden administration decides to give Ukraine cluster bombs and more financial support.

Second, through the Wagner Group rebellion matter on Jun 23, 2023, it became clear to the public opinion that Russia does not have strong institutions at home; one who was in prison for stealing is released and sells sandwiches, then approaches the president and cooks for him, and sets up a food company and becomes a billionaire, then creates a militia in the name of protecting the state, but in the end, in a historically sensitive situation, he rebels against the Russian government and the president and turns his weapons against his state?

Third, the preoccupation with this war has left several crucial issues and significant global threats untouched, such as;

   - Global warming (according to the Associated Press News: the summit is held this week, and the Earth has not been so hot for 12,000 years). 

    - Nuclear weapons, the issue of China's growth and explosion as a power in every corner of the world, 

     - The issue of global financial inflation, 

     - The crisis of energy security and food security.

Therefore, all 31 independent and member states of NATO ( North America and Europe), all 21 participating countries in NATO in the name of partnership for peace, and 15 countries in the name of institutional dialogue in NATO. They are all urgently resolving the defense issue in Ukraine in favor of Ukraine and the West, and they are passing the membership of Sweden and Finland without a barrier. Ultimately, this summit tests NATO's unity in the face of Russia and other outstanding issues.

Turkey plays a decisive role in the new global and regional system (despite its severe internal problems). This means the Kurdish issue in North and West Kurdistan is in danger.

 What will be the outcome of NATO's fourth summit, and how will it affect the behavior of Russia and Putin? When and how will the deep problems mentioned above be solved? Will the issues discussed at this summit be implemented as they are?

Whatever the answers, a new global and regional order, a new definition of the international system and how it works, has become the only fact, and a new name is coming. Will internal problems cause Europe's collapse, or will the future be a post-polarization in international relations literature due to the increasing role of artificial intelligence and the role of non-state actors? Alternatively, Russia and the United States will have a secret agreement to stop the war, with negative consequences for the other sides. Are we seeing a multipolar world? Or will it form a Chinese-led economic pole and a US-led military pole? The pole may disappear!

Bahrooz Jaafar has a Ph.D. in international relations and is the founder and head of the Mediterranean Institute for Regional Study-MIRS.