- Bahrooz Jaafar
According to systematic theories in the science of international relations, especially the neo-realist approach, which believes that threats come from outside and emphasize the nature of the international system, interests, and the acquisition of power are the main key ideas of the realists. Iraq and the Kurdistan Region are also facing sudden changes in the region, and the engine of this change is "energy."
The Kurdish entity in Iraq must take ownership of its political and economic issues through its presence in the world in various ways. Petroleum processes are not just contracting, exploration, extraction, and refining. The complex process begins with the next phase: export routes (energy geopolitics), lobbying and research on the global economic market, public relations, and political consequences.
Regionally, and especially regarding the Eastern Mediterranean hydrocarbon issue, thinkers and decision-makers assume that the Iraqi Kurdistan Region will become a regional player through oil and natural gas. While the Kurds still do not have an independent political state in Iraq, Syria, Turkey, or Iran. There is only one region in Iraqi federalism: the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President and Prime Minister will be warmly welcomed by heads of state and high institutions from the Gulf countries to Britain, the United States, and France. They also have speeches and interviews at various high levels at international summits.
There are two important issues in the Middle East region :
The first is the issue of combating violence and terrorism, whose solution is to raise the level of coexistence and fight terrorism, and the second is the case of oil and natural gas.
The KRI confronted the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) as a prominent force from 2014 to 2017, and terrorism is still a continuing threat to the region. As well as, all religious and ethnic communities, such as Kurds, Yazidis, Christians, and Turkmen, Arabs, Shabak, are protected together on the Kurdistan's territory.
Regarding energy, the Kurdistan Region exports nearly 450.000 barrels of oil daily through the Kurdistan-Turkey's Ceyhan Pipeline in the Mediterranean Sea and from there to the world markets. In early 2023, when the world was suffering from a natural gas crisis, Dana gas announced that the Khormor gas field's production level had exceeded 500 million cubic feet per day, working to reach 1 billion cubic feet per day cubic feet of natural gas. In addition, three other fields produce natural gas in Miran, Bina Bawi, and Khurmala.
However, the KRG's energy sector faces significant challenges. From the outset, the Iraqi central government has opposed the Kurdistan Region's oil processes, as pro-Iranian groups have dominated the Iraqi government, economic and military sectors since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, claiming that "Kurdistan oil is being sold to Israel "The Kurdistan Region is a position for Israel and the Americans to attack Iran from." However, in reality, Iraq and Iran want to keep the Kurds away from the energy issue.
Therefore, from 2007 to 2023, Kurdistan Regional Government oil will be sold in the world markets at a lower price than the oil prices of other countries, which is intended to find buyers; This means that oil importers and buyers still do not dare to buy oil from the KRG.
The Kurdistan Region has a 513-kilometer border with the Islamic Republic of Iran. In addition, Iran has political, military, cultural, and economic dominance in Iraq. Iran does not want any other alternative in the region to supply oil and gas except itself. Therefore, when gas exports are mentioned in international forums and triggered from inside the KRI, the KRI's gas fields are subjected to missile and Katyusha attacks by Iraqi militia forces, as in 2022 alone, four different missile attacks on the Khormor field.
On February 15, 2022, the Federal Supreme Court in Baghdad ruled that the KRG's Oil and Gas Law (which was issued in 2007 by Kurdistan Region's Parliament) is unconstitutional! This is according to articles 110, 111, 112, 115, 121, and 130 of the 2005 Iraqi Constitution. However, its worth mentioning that the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court and its composition are unconstitutional according to the constitution referred to by the Federal Court. Article 92, paragraph 2, states: The Federal Supreme Court is composed of two-thirds of the members of parliament. So the court is unconstitutional. Article 87 also refers to the impartiality and independence of members of the judiciary and the courts in general..
Throughout Iraq, it is known that the decision of the Federal Supreme Court of Iraq was political, then to be used for political purposes and negotiating cards on the tables.
Iraq has domesticated oil since 1927, and there is no oil and gas law yet. What will the oil and gas law do for Iraq? Is Iraq still in the process of passing the oil and gas law? Some said that Iraq is in the recovery room and under intensive surveillance.
Iran generally considers the area (Iraq and the southern part of the Kurdistan Region) as its zone of hegemony. However, Turkey and the UAE are active, and the US administration supports it. In 2022 alone, the United States funded the Khor Mor gas field with $250 million to expand plants and accelerate production.
The Iraqi government needs 30,000 megawatts of electricity but has yet to be able to produce more than 20,000 megawatts. Iraq, including Baghdad, relies on Iran for a third of its electricity, importing gas from Iran at three times the market price. In January 2023, the Iraqi Oil Ministry announced that proven oil reserves had increased by 6 billion barrels and proven natural gas reserves by 23 billion cubic feet after the new exploration by the Iraqi Oil Ministry's General Oil Exploration Companies in the western desert. By this means, Iraq's proven oil reserves have reached 151 billion barrels, he said. The largest gas reserves are in western Iraq's Sunni province of Anbar. This will increase the interference of Sunni countries in the region.
However, Iran does not allow the Kurdistan Region's gas replaces its gas for Iraq, nor does it want Iraq and the Kurdistan Region to be on a stable oil coin to help Europe and the United States in its present global energy crisis. Therefore, the US administration has officially comprehended that the decisions of the Federal Court and the Ministry of Oil have other purposes. In September 2022, Deputy Secretary of State Barbara Leaf visited Baghdad, Erbil, and the UAE. They restated its support for the KRG's energy sector.
Furthermore, the Iraqi government has been threatening the Kurdistan Region's energy sector in two ways. First, by pressuring multinational companies to stop operating in the Kurdistan Region's policy: Schlumberger, Halliburton Energy Service, Beker Hughes Company. Second, the Iraqi central government is seeking to attract energy companies to invest in areas under central government control, such as the signing of three contracts with UAE Pearl Petroleum in three fields in Diyala and Basra provinces in February 2023.
"There is a political figure among the Kurd political elites who had extensive power in Iraq and are now unemployed; they believe that their destiny's political punched from the Kurdistan Region, so they are encouraging several multinational companies to move against the KRG's goals and sign a contract with the central government to operate in the southern provinces of Iraq." Political billionaires who have ruled Iraq in previous terms are playing a new threat to Iraq and the Kurdistan Region.
Overall, without the support of the United States and Europe, the energy security of the Kurdistan Region and the KRI entirely will be threatened by Iran and Iraqi militia groups (Probably Turkey's rulers will be silent). Also, Political, economic, and social stability cannot be achieved without reforms inside the Kurdistan Region.
Bahrooz Jaafar / Founder and head of the Mediterranean Institute for Regional Studies, he has a Ph.D. in international political economy.