By/ Bahrooz Jaafar *

Are war and conflict going on? Of course, conflict and war are happening. If you exclude conflict and war from human history, from the history of ancient, medieval, modern, and contemporary political thought, there is nothing left.

The situation is chaotic! Of course, anarchy must be present. According to realists in international relations, chaos is part of the nature of the arena itself. Because each state and each flank must seek to push power for itself, peace and balance of power may be established through force. In the view of realism theory, relationships among nations are created through "conflict."
If World War I  had not happened, Qatar would not be a state today, nor would the World Cup be held in the Middle East. If the Kurds had not revolted in September 1961, Saddam Hussein would not have reached an agreement with the Shah of Iran in 1974. If it had not been for Saddam's regret of the covenant, there would have been no eight-year Iran- Iraq war. Moreover, the UN Security Council did not recognize the Kurdistan Region of Iraq as a de facto in 1991.

Of course, there are wars and conflicts. Nothing is stable, especially in Iraq. Nothing has a long-term structure or basis for compliance, from the price and quality of a pack of cigarettes to the laws passed by the parliament and the agreements between Erbil and the central government.
Here, in light of the signs and information from Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, as well as seeing the new regional and global intersection, we can answer several questions:

First, looking from the bureau de change, a man carrying a huge of Iranian toman or Turkish liras calls: Buy or sell it: Where is the situation going? The situation is not going anywhere. Iran to attack the Kurdistan Region? When hasn't Iran attacked the Kurds? Since the Achaemenid Empire (from the throne of Jamshid), Iran has been killing Kurds in every way, hanging them, massacring them, and giving electricity to one city and not another.
 Is Turkey starting to intervene in the region? Sure. Turkey has been established to invade its neighbors. Since 1299, Ottomans have been intervening for more than seven hundred years. In other words, for Turkey to stabilize, it must interfere with others: from the Balkans and the Black Sea to the Mediterranean region.

In April 2014, we were having coffee between the two Cypriots when we felt that helicopters were flying like frogs and military trucks were visible from the ground; they crossed the borders with a ship called Barbaros (Barbaros was the minister of water of the Ottoman Empire)!
Has Turkey entered the Kurdistan Region? It is true, but Turkey has been in the Kurdistan Region since 1991 and has established a military base in Badinan (Bahdinan- north part of the Kurdistan region) with the approval of NATO and the UN Security Council. 
Once again, many Kurds are skeptical! Iraq is attacking us! Of course, Iraq will attack. How can it not? When has it not attacked? 
  Will the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continue? The conflict and war have been going on for thousands of years. On the contrary, the world now pays less attention to the Arab-Israeli war. There has always been no solution; everyone is upset about it, the new circumstances have emerged, so the world is paying attention to other priorities.

Second, where do the problems come from? The question of why an event will happen is a somewhat philosophical issue (Particularly, this matter was triggered by Slavoj Žižek in recent years, who was somewhat close to Marx's arguments). For Marx, a significant event occurs when, swelling with a series of accumulated events before it, suddenly an event occurs that will not be repeated every hundred years. As a result, some failures may come into play, and some forces may fall and not rise again, such as the empires of previous centuries: Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish, and Ottomans. 
For Kenneth Waltz, the father of the Neo-realist theory in international relations and the author of "Theory in International Politics" in 1979, The whole scene depends on these concepts: the role of power in politics in international relations, national interest, power distributions, the structure of international relations, polarization. He believes that risks and threats are related to the structure of the international system:
Thus, we are moving towards a new era in international relations at the end of 2022; the stage is the so-called "great power competition." In other words, regional and local conflicts, even when people see an unknown drone and the governor and district administrator say, "We have contacted our superiors," all of these come from the conflict between the United States and China, NATO, and Russia. Then how and where do the Kurds find themselves in the conflict of superpowers, how do they classify the possibilities on the table, and what are the options to deal with it?  

Third, has the Kurdish issue risen or fallen? Both of them. It has risen because this is not the Cold War era. This is the era of Techno ctronic (the era of the fourth industrial revolution, the period when the smallest tool can have the most significant impact. The hundreds of years of the Kurdish liberation movement have not advanced as much as the death of Zhina Amini in Iran. That is why the ground is favorable for the Kurds to benefit from the modern world, not to complain about it. The Kurds should refrain from talking about their oppression and betrayal of the other forces; This might be suited for the media, not for politics. The ground is favorable for the Kurds to link their interests to great powers. Great power is a sovereign state recognized as having the ability and expertise to exert its influence on a global scale. So for others, there are only two options: Can they become a great power? If it is not, they have to go into the noses of elephants like flies and annoy them because flies can often annoy elephants and get into their noses, forcing them to deal with and recognize them.
Fourth, are the opportunities in Iraq optimistic for the Kurds? Of course, but it is temporary (as mentioned above). Where do this opportunity and optimism for the Kurdistan Region come from? The Coordination Framework was an umbrella bloc of Iraqi Shiite parties that formed this government cabinet. They all follow the same policy and are all under a tough test to save Iraq's security and sovereignty. No one part of telling each other: Kurds are traitors and cut the budget, etc. The Sunnis are more committed to implementing the agreements than the Kurds (politically they are entirely dependent on Kurdish demands, on the other hand, a considerable amount of gas reserves has been discovered in Anbar, which needs to maintain security and stability). Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani's s cabinet would not succeed without the Kurds because they already had fragile popular support, and Muqtada al-Sadr was ambushing them.

Conclusion
Regarding the attacks of Turkey and Iran, the Kurd leaders should create partners and bring a deep understanding with the Iraqi central government. The Kurds must have a robust decision-making council in Baghdad.

The president of Turkey, "Receb Tayyib Erdogan," who ruled Turkey from 2002 to 2022, is unclear whether he will be president in 2023. All domestic and foreign observers agree that Turkey's Republic President needs to wage war in the surrounding area. President Erdogan has also faced intense competition within Turkey.
Iran would never have moved its forces to the borders if it had not been for the death of Zhina Amini, the demonstrations, and the mass revolution. 
Most clearly, The rulers of Iran and Turkey are fearful and need an act.

Finally, there will be changes. In less than a month and before the end of 2022, there will be significant changes in Iraq and around it. Further normalization and more unity are taking place between the two main Iraqi Kurdish political parties ( PDK and PUK).
Is the situation complicated? Is the situation complicated? Of course, it takes work. The task of political leadership has to manage the conflict and gain more power to maintain national security. 

 Bahrooz Jaafar. Founder and head of the Mediterranean Institute for Regional Studies, he is carrying a Ph.D. in international political economy.