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France to step into US void Iraq, supporting key Kurdish role in regional security

French President Emmanuel Macron (R) is welcomed by Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government's (IKRG) President Nechirvan Barzani (2nd R) upon his arrival at Erbil Airport in northern Iraq on August 29, 2021 [Ahsan Mohammed Ahmed Ahmed/Anadolu Agency]
European Union (EU)

8/30/2021 12:32:00 PM

On the sidelines of the dramatic global changes and regional events, and in the midst of many complications, Iraq held a conference. Therefore, the Mediterranean Institute for Regional Studies, to analyze the regional situation, considered it necessary to address President Macron’s visit, as well as the position of the Kurdistan Region and the role of its political figures in front of the perspectives and visions of national and foreign specialists and for different levels. Here a geopolitical thinker and an energy expert "Cyril Widdershoven", he earned his post graduate degrees at King’s College, University of London, Department of War Studies, and an M.A. in Middle East Studies at the University of Nijmegen, Netherlands. he prepared his topic entitled: 

 

 France to step into US void Iraq, supporting key Kurdish role in regional security
 
At the time that the world is watching the Afghanistan disaster, caused by the US retreat, leaving its allies in the dark, France is working on its future role in the Middle East region. French president Macron, while attending the Baghdad Regional Summit, with major regional parties such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and others, has shown a willingness to fill the perceived void left by Washington’s ongoing retreat from the region.

The Afghani conundrum, already perceived by most as America’s 2nd Vietnam experience, also has pushed other regional conflicts to the fore. The coming months Washington’s military presence in Iraq, and possibly other countries, is expected to be minimized or even ended. Worries about regional security and stability are growing, especially in the still fragile Iraqi situation or linked to Iran. France, in the Middle East a silent but still strong military party, has shown lately a willingness partly to fill the void if Washington continues its military retreat. Macron’s statements at the Baghdad Summit made clear that Paris is willing to up the ante, stating even bluntly to the press that it will “ not forget its allies”.  During the summit, Macron committed to French support for the Iraqi ongoing struggle against terrorism, especially ISIS, but also for a stable and strong independent Iraq.

At the same time, Macron’s visit to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq this weekend also has shown that the French understand the still strong ethnic and militant power players in the country. The historic visit of the French president to Erbil and Mosul shows the continuing strong support by Paris for the Kurdish parties in Iraq. Officially the visit is linked by Paris to its ongoing support for minorities in the Middle East, as also shown in Syria and Lebanon, but the long military relationship between the Kurdish forces and the French security and military forces is known. The high level meeting between French President Macron and Kurdish Region President Nechirvan Barzani is significant. At present, the KRG is seen as the most stable and safe region of Iraq, as the latter is still not only battling Islamic extremist groups but ongoing political infighting between sectarian and religious based groups is still very high. As Iraq is still facing increased turmoil, especially when looking at the fluctuating role of Shi’a politician Muqtada Al Sadr or the Iranian-backed militias, while the US is looking at a full-retreat of its military presence in the country, the KRG is a safe-haven. 
At present, as most Iraqis believe the US power position in the country is waning and Iran continues to destabilize, France is showing a determined and stable position in all. Officially US and UK influence in Iraq has been strong, but Paris has been always playing a major role too. During Saddam Hussein Paris was heavily involved in the 1980s, which role has continued until now. A possible US void is for sure an attractive option for Paris.

The Kurdish factor in the total political military situation in Iraq and the region should not be underestimated. With an almost de-facto independent region (KRG) the Kurdish parties have been able not only to restore their security arrangements, but also set up a strong economic position. The former detrimental relationship between Erbil and Baghdad has been largely removed, as both parties understood that cooperation is better than confrontation. Still, the Baghdad-Erbil friendship is not strong, as financial and security conflicts still exist. The future position of parts of the KRG area is still unclear, as both sides claim full ownership. The coming months will be crucial for the fore-seeable future, as both sides are looking to strengthen their cooperation. 

Without any doubt France’s strategy with regards to the KRG of Iraq is linked to other Iraqi and non-Iraqi developments. Paris, as also some other European countries show, looks at the KRG as a potential stabilizing factor in Iraqi politics. Without forgetting also internal Kurdish issues, the KRG could and should be a leading example for the rest of the country. At the same time, the KRG is a stabilizing or even minimizing power to external influences in Iraq.

 The Kurdish approach to regional powers such as Iran, Turkey or even Saudi Arabia is clearly seen as a powerbroker of influence. For outside powers, such as France, the KRG is seen as a potential bulwark against growing Turkish regional influence or to upset Iranian encroachment efforts. Some even could even link the current French approach to another power player, Israel, strategic cooperation before. By stabilizing and strengthening the KRG situation, other potentially destabilizing powers are being constrained. Paris will not openly acknowledge it but Macron will not be unhappy to put a damper on Turkish (Erdogan) influence in the north of Iraq, while also being able to put pressure on the so-called Iranian Shi’a Triangle or Highway between Tehran and Syria-Hezbollah. The strategic economical and military position the KRG holds in the total area is known since centuries, it is just with other or new players. 
The main focus however the coming years should be how to set up an internal regional framework in which the KRG is able not only to prevent future regional conflicts, but also to be a centerpiece in the economic and political development of Iraq. The current success formula inside of the KRG, as clearly understood by France, is an option not to be taken lightly. To stabilize Iraq, and get it back as a stable power player in the region is to the advantage of all. Without KRG support the latter is not possible, looking at the regional and geographic position of the area. For the Kurds this is an opportunity, for Iraq and the region a necessity. Maybe it will be a strong move to combine all, with support of the French. In light of the Afghanistan developments, Paris could be a city of light again, but this time as supporter of a regional power and safety system. Kurdish politicians also could be stepping up their efforts to bring parties to the table, looking at the still looming Iran-Saudi confrontation or Turkish-Arab relations.